After two days of rumors about the health of
Thailand's king, confirmation finally arrived in the form of a solemn statement
issued by the royal palace Thursday evening. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, a
unifying figure through seven politically tumultuous decades, died peacefully
in the capital of Bangkok at the age of 88. According to the palace, the
world's longest-reigning monarch died at 3:52 p.m. after years of declining
health. The immediate cause of death was not clear.
Despite reports that the king's health had
worsened in recent days, the news has plunged Thailand into a period of deep
mourning and uncertainty. For most Thais, King Bhumibol is the only monarch
they have ever known, the one constant in a modern history marked by mass
protests, military coups, and widening political fault lines. In some quarters,
the king is revered with almost religious fervor; his beatific portrait is
ubiquitous, staring down from the walls of homes, businesses, and government
buildings across the country.
By the time the king's death was announced
Thursday evening, crowds of mourners had gathered outside Siriraj Hospital,
clad in yellow and pink, colors associated with the throne. Some wept openly,
clutching portraits of the monarch. Others sang royalist songs in a plaintive
key. On social media networks, the #longlivetheking hashtag was trending as
Thai web users posted hundreds of messages and photos in memory of King
Bhumibol.
In a televised address, Prime Minister
Prayuth Chan-ocha, a general who took power in a May 2014 coup, declared a year
of mourning and a 30-day moratorium on entertainment events. He also announced
that King Bhumibol will be succeeded as expected by Crown Prince Maha
Vajiralongkorn, who has said he "needs time to mourn his father"
before taking his place as the 10th king of the Chakri Dynasty. Unlike King
Bhumibol, Prince Vajiralongkorn is a controversial figure, a jet-setting
womanizer whose eventual ascension to the throne will likely herald a period of
rocky transition for one of the world's most revered monarchies.
During a reign lasting a touch more than 70
years, King Bhumibol presided over Thailand's transformation from a rural
kingdom once known as Siam into a regional economic powerhouse. A quiet,
introverted man with horn-rimmed glasses, Bhumibol was born in 1927 in
Cambridge, Massachusetts, while his father was a student at Harvard Medical
School. The young prince spent much of his early life abroad, until the
mysterious shooting death of his brother, King Ananda Mahidol, unexpectedly
catapulted Bhumibol to the throne in 1946.
In his early years as ruler, King Bhumibol
split his time between his official royal duties and hobbies like photography
and jazz and as the years went by came to be seen as a stabilizing force that
stood firm amid cycles of political upheaval. (Since 1932, this country of 67
million has experienced 19 coups and coup attempts.) The king's stature was
heightened by the political tumult of October 1973, when the arrest of 13
student activists triggered massive public protests against Thailand's military
dictator du jour, Thanom Kittikachorn. After security forces fired on student
protesters, killing around 70, King Bhumibol and other royals intervened and
expressed support for the protesters. The junta was eventually forced out of
power, and Thanom fled the country.
If these events revealed a new zenith of
popularity for the 45-year-old king, it also demonstrated the ambiguity of his
position in Thailand's fractious politics: not directly involved but never
wholly aloof. In an article on the October uprising, the New York Times
described King Bhumibol's role as "less than ruling but certainly more
than just reigning." Although royalists argue that the king was a father
figure who ruled for the good of his people, most of Thailand's military coups
have enjoyed tacit royal approval.
In his twilight years, as Thailand's
political crises compounded, King Bhumibol became a remote, isolated figure,
more a presence than a man, dogged by poor health and swaddled by a stringent
lèse-majesté regime that effectively prevented any open discussion of the royal
family -- including the effect his death might have on this politically fragile
country.
The ramifications of King Bhumibol's death
are uncertain but likely to be far-reaching. Despite standing as a bastion of
unity for the Thai people, the king's image papered over wide social and
political divides. For the last 15 years, a bitter political struggle has
pitted the allies of former prime minister and billionaire telecommunications
mogul Thaksin Shinawatra, who won massive support from the rural poor for his
populist social and economic policies, against the traditional royalist elite -
a tight-knit coterie of soldiers, bureaucrats, and rich businessmen surrounding
the palace. This conflict reflects a deeper social rift between the
conservative middle class in the cities and rural and working-class Thais --
the so-called "Red Shirts" -- who found their political voice in
support of Thaksin.
Some observers have suggested that the
succession could have complex effects on the outcome of this struggle. The most
immediate question surrounds King Bhumibol's nominated successor. Though Crown
Prince Vajiralongkorn's claim to the throne is clear, the 64-year-old lacks his
father's royal aura and is believed to be deeply unpopular among the royalist
elite. Over the years, he has shown little interest in the public duties
associated with the royal family, instead earning a reputation as a fast-living
playboy who spends most of his time outside the country, largely in Germany,
where he reportedly owns an $11 million villa on a lake south of Munich.
In 2007, leaked video footage showed Prince
Vajiralongkorn holding a lavish private party with his then-wife, Srirasmi
Suwadee -- clad in nothing but heels and a G-string -- and his pampered pet
poodle, Foo Foo, which by the time of its death last year held the rank of
chief marshal in the Royal Thai Air Force. (The mutt's death was marked by four
days of Buddhist funeral rites.) In July, the German tabloid Bild published
photos of Prince Vajiralongkorn boarding a plane in Munich wearing low-rise
jeans and an unflattering tank top that revealed a palette of fresh
yakuza-style tattoos. (Thai authorities claimed the photos were doctored.)
Scottish journalist Andrew MacGregor
Marshall, author of the 2014 book "A Kingdom in Crisis, "which was
banned in Thailand for its discussion of the royal succession, says much of the
Thai elite is implacably opposed to the prospect of Prince Vajiralongkorn
succeeding his father. "From quite a young age, he acted like a medieval
monarch," Marshall said of the crown prince. "For the elites who
benefit from the continued perception of a benevolent monarchy, this is a
disaster."
To make matters worse, many fear that Prince
Vajiralongkorn might make common cause with Thaksin, who is currently in exile
abroad, joining hands with the popular politician to clean house in the palace.
This, in turn, could undermine royalist control of the Privy Council, a small
but influential royal advisory body, and threaten the sprawling networks of
business and patronage that converge on the opaque Crown Property Bureau, which
administers the palace's estimated $53 billion in property and business
investments. "What the elite has always been terrified of is that the
crown prince and Thaksin will get together and that Thaksin would get his hands
on the Crown Property Bureau. That thought absolutely terrifies them,"
Marshall said.
For now, with the population in deep
mourning, things are likely to be muted. Undoubtedly, this is by design. Kasit
Piromya, a former foreign minister, told me last year that one of the army's
main motivations for launching the 2014 coup was to ensure there was political
stability during the sensitive period of succession. Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an
associate professor at Kyoto University in Japan, said despite the elite's
distaste for the crown prince, most senior officials would probably wait to see
how things pan out. "At the end of the day, the well-being of the monarchy
is the well-being of the royalists. Even if they don't like it, they'll have to
swallow it for their own good," he said.
Where the succession leads in the longer term
is harder to predict. One question is whether the popular reverence for the
monarchy will fade now that King Bhumibol is gone. Another question is what
sort of monarch Prince Vajiralongkorn will turn out to be if and when he is
crowned king. Will he choose to settle into a comfortable life of palace-bound
ritual? Or will he decide to pursue an activist reign, shaking up an entrenched
political establishment in pursuit of his own vision for Thailand? There is
also the question of whether elections, which the junta has promised for next
year, will go ahead in the current situation. What is certain is that as one
historical era opens, and another closes, the future of the monarchy will now
hang ever more ominously over the country's political life -- whether or not
anyone can acknowledge it publicly.
Sebastian Strangio
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