Will the
Pakistani government take up the mantle to change the country's subservient and
subjugated role to a more defining and enhanced one?
Russia
has responded to the western encirclement through diversification of her
foreign policy. In the emerging scenario of an uncertain multi-polar world, the
contemporary situation depicts a post-modern society. With the emergence of
East, new paths and creative ideas are being adopted to deal with the
unprecedented situations and challenging tasks that nation-states have to
overcome in the rapidly changing socio-economic and political environment of
the world. As Washington and Moscow have proactively restored an intermittent
peace in Middle East through Syrian ceasefire plan, we have seen both sides
endeavouring to pursue a diplomatic struggle to remain relevant in terms of
their narratives. Climate change and environmental issues are debated in the
UN, which requires mutual collaboration. Despite such measures or initiatives,
the global crisis is deepening. This requires an intense, paradigm shift in the
policy-making and interest-pursuits. How long can Russia-Britain sustain an
economic loss of $10 billion trade volume due to sanction in first place due to
insane militaristic adventures?
Obama was
in South East Asia to visit Vietnam and Japan, last week. America has shared a
difficult and dark part of history with both Asian countries. A Democrat
President, Obama intends to count his tenure relevant as a Democrat President.
The Iran Nuclear Deal, Syrian ceasefire plan and OBL fiasco were main events
during his presidency that dealt with American policy towards West Asia. His
recent, ‘timely’ visit to Far East Asia and South East Asia after his historic
visit to Cuba give his administration and party an edge against the
Republicans. Donald Trump, selected as the Republican candidate, throughout his
campaign has spoken an innumerable times and at multiple occasions, about the relevance
and importance of China. Who will come up against Trump; i.e. Clinton or
Sanders, is yet to be determined. As November 2016 approaches (the month a new
US President will be elected), global events have significantly altered and
intensified through America’s visible and invisible guiding hand in the recent
months. Amidst the rising tensions, China has sent a nuclear armed submarine
into Pacific to deliver a message. What provoked China to take such stand? It
is an unprecedented step with potential to steer towards higher proportion of
cataclysms.
Nuclear
Deal 2015, ahead of US Presidential elections, has provided Iran an opportunity
to flex her muscles and start a campaign vying for making up for the losses
endured for the last three decades. At one side, the western intervention
programs have culminated into a Syrian ceasefire plan. This has enabled Iran to
direct her attention towards East Asia. It has to be kept in mind that Iran is
surrounded by seven nuclear-armed states: Israel, China, India, Pakistan,
Britain, Russia and France. To secure a stable regional policy, Iran has
shifted her new policy aiming towards coordination and cooperation with the
East Asian countries. The Chahbahar Port project includes the beneficiaries,
Afghanistan and India. Pakistan’s (almost non-existent) foreign policy, run by
the military agencies in the backyard of Asia, has proved to be futile in terms
of projecting a positive out-reach. The killing of Mullah Mansur Akhtar, an
Afghan National, has proved to be a dark spot for Pakistan. Pakistan’s state
agencies are responsible for the mess in a sense that they have alienated their
own stance by claiming that most non-state actors dwindle between the porous
and open borders of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan while doing nothing about it
themselves. Pakistan has to come up with an adequately thought-out policy
program with little reliance on being termed as the ‘warrior state' where we
turn a blind eye to the onus of such high magnitudinal events or situations.
Iran’s foreign policy has diversified from
dealing with Middle Eastern chaos to East Asia’s opportunities. Pakistan has
remained aloof to the developing situation around the world and is stuck in old
rhetoric. Probably, it is due to the internal strife and differences that have
stagnated any chances for informed decision-making and a viable consensus to
develop. Khulbhushan Jadhev’s arrest
during Iranian President’s visit to Pakistan might be the highest level of
diplomatic initiative taken publicly in recent time. India-centrism has
corroded the minds and hearts of a young nation and derailed the path to
positive reforms. Diversification of foreign policy is a major step towards
consolidating measures that ensure a Nation-States interest. While Obama was on
a visit to Japan and Vietnam, last week- Putin was meeting the leaders of ASEAN
(Association of South East Asian Nations) in Sochi, Russia. This is regarded as
a Russian attempt to remove the stalemate that had diminished cooperation
between countries located in the Eurasian region. The China factor was slowing
the process but Russia-ASEAN summit attempted to address the grass-root level
problem in terms of economic relations and disapprove active militaristic
designs in the Pacific. To strengthen Asian resolve and minimize differences,
Eurasian Russia stood up to tackle American presence and interference in
Pacific Ocean.
Recent
developments on the global turf, i.e. the importance of Syrian ceasefire plan
at a time when America’s growing level of intervention in East Asia and
elsewhere, have made nations of the East realize the importance of maintaining
cordial relations with their territorial and regional neighbours. After the
Panama Papers issue – the ouster of Brazilian President, Dilma Rousseff, proved
that America will continue to divert situations to their own advantage by
propping up incompetent rulers and financing actors that serve as elements of
lies, confusion, chaos, deception and destruction to an extent where the recent
development of US-Cuba relations restored did not matter to Obama
Administration. The West is now attempting to provide India the status of a
NATO ally in the East through National Defense Authourisation Act passed in
American Congress. This will lead India to becomE a ‘police-state’. Being a
neighbour, it is up to Pakistan to prove to India that militarization tactics
in South Asia have always resulted in ‘Divide and Rule’- with the Civil
Government on both sides reaching a terms of understanding. Western attempts to sabotage Afghan peace
process in the past have resulted in the Haqqani Network and other terror
groups to distance themselves from any Quadrilateral efforts to materialize.
The problem is not with drone attacks being source of violation of country’s
sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is the case of Angoor Adda base that
adds up to existing miserable situation depicting the weakness of Pakistani
Institutions – where both countries had rolled tanks against each other at
Torkham border, two weeks ago. It depicts
a repetition of the historical situation of Kargil and Siachen.The
military command should have referred it to the civil government before taking
the step. Potentially, more value could’ve been added through combined
deliberations. The civilian government would’ve attempted to diminish any
hawkish approach – from both sides. A possible step to a probable solution
would’ve been joint Afghan-Pakistan, Iran-Pakistan or trio alliance to deal
with the criminal elements in the region. If for Pakistani routes in CPEC, then
why not for regional stability? Pakistan’s lead should come in embracing the
change and proposing; not exposing. Why did Ashraf Ghani have to change his
neutral stance to an anti-Pakistani one?
The shift
of Iranian priorities from militarism to economic alliances can prove to be a
game-changer in the region. For Pakistan, the ‘invisible’ authority has to
realize that ‘geo-strategic’ plan doesn’t have to be at the top of the game but
rather be central and integral to working of relationships. Pakistan should
attempt to remain relevant to ‘geo-economic’ interests in order to create a
balance with ‘geo-strategic’ interests. The Turkish case is a classic example
to learn the pros and cons – with a contrast to Russian approach reinforced
through Russian School of Constitutional Economics. Consider Pakistan’s
situation for now. To observe the ‘old’ established priorities, CII has issued
a renewed version of ‘Women protection bill,’ that in fact is limited to
certain cases and is more repressive than inhumane laws or the prevailing
conservative culture in Saudia or Iran. This response of CII came after
government’s initiatives that can be as proposals which deemed to expose a
negative and disastrous type of mindset, through steps taken in a manner that
challenged their credibility and relevance to law of Pakistan. Is NAP limited
in matters of deliverance? A weak democracy needs stability and time to
deliver. The socio-economic and political situation needs uplift. Pakistani
leaders have to stride towards achieving a Progressive Pakistan through
statesman approach that leads to strengthening the system and upholding the
rule of law. To remain stuck in militaristic avenues would result in tremendous
embarrassment.
Cultivate
a ‘moral law is the highest law’ approach: which develops a pattern through
concerted and concentrated efforts. Patriotism and pride are individualistic
and subjective choices. The build-up of a strong case for foreign policy needs
Pakistanis to identify the cause and effect of the situation where a
nation-state that was soaring towards new heights till 1960s – fell way behind.
There seems to be a striking similarity in the way our foreign policy is run
and internal policy is formulated – relatively, in terms of society existing in
the Republic of North Korea. America has succeeded in capturing a cage we built
for the Af-Pak region; where, after the normalizing of US relations with Iran
and Cuba, the ensuing nuclear summits will endeavour to find the track-record
of North Korean activity that qualifies as criminal intent.
The
purpose of drawing inference to North Korea is due to the existence of such
mindset. Instead of developing relations with neighbours or like-minded states,
the North Korean leadership is moving down on a path that will lead nowhere,
eventually. Russia and China have set a positive example in the course of
western onslaught. They have widened the scope of cooperation, collaboration
and coordination in Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia, Far East Asia and
Central Asia. The process of sustainability of Syrian ceasefire plan,
establishing mechanism for stability in Iraq and ensuring Afghan freedom and
enduring peace process will enhance status to a united, prosperous and powerful
Asia. Peak oil crisis that caused Saudi rejections and opposition in setting
the international oil prices led to ineffective solutions during negotiations
and the anti-Saudi bill passed in American Congress has exposed American
priorities/plans for the Middle East. Russian initiatives backed by Chinese
steps to enhance integration inter-alia Asian countries will deter aggression
of Pro-Israeli NATO and their counterparts. Pakistani state and government are
in a position to take a lead in restoring credentials of the State of Pakistan,
through setting an example of a society that has tolerance and strength in
order to deliver in times of crisis. This is reflected in aftermath of Panama
Papers, where PM Nawaz Sharif firmly dealt with the instigators and agitators
by declaring that he has always preferred values above power. This is where
democracy needs to deliver in an Islamic Republic.
There
have been latest attempts to encircle Russia and China, respectively i.e. such
that NATO activities led by US in Eastern Europe (Missile defense systems
installation and lining of troops along with Air force/Navy contingents) and
the intensification of Indian militarization i.e. induction and developments of
nuclear missile, nuclear submarine and supersonic interceptor in recent months
have caused tensions soaring in military flash-points. Russian role in
administering and ensuring Syrian ceasefire plan, ahead of US elections, has
led to clarification of the situation that requires a Eurasian alliance.
Pakistan should offer Iran ease and access in the Afghanistan-Iran-India
Chahbahar deal. Pakistan can extend the CPEC corridor to Central
Asia-Russia-China and offer passage to Iran, Afghanistan and India i.e. attain
a harbinger status by linking north-south corridor and east-west corridor
within Eurasia. Pakistan has to focus on re-considering the concept of
strategic depth and produce a new interpretation. Due to new sanctions, Russia
imported food items and vegetables while looking for new avenues i.e. made a
deal to provide military weapons to Thailand, in return. Countries like
Philippines and Indonesia have increased cooperation, coordination and
collaboration with Russia. The underlying concept is supporting the emerging
Eurasian collaboration where differences manipulated are put to an end. To
achieve the aim of restoring their relations, China and Russia, are taking
unprecedented steps through a process of diffusing opposition and minimising
differences i.e. their relations with territorial and regional neighbours in
Asia. Both countries have improved their relations with ASEAN organisation –
which may come to work under umbrella of SCO in near future. Pakistani society
needs to understand the implications of remaining stuck in India-centrism
approach.
Establishing
parameters and contours requires a well thought out approach based on awareness
and informed decision-making. It is imperative to build-up from within in order
to extract and gain benefits from production, trade and development. Support
Afghanistan’s democratic government and end the espionage programs inside the
neighbouring country. Pakistani state agencies should cooperate with Afghani
institutions. Similarly, Pakistan should address international concerns on
terrorism. As the Parliamentary committee and Judicial Commission probe the
case of Panama Papers, they need to be concerned with issues like the oligarchs
emerging in Brazil after Rousseff’s resignation. Brazil has institutions and
infrastructures but lost a chance to deliver in the course of ill-informed
decision making and mismanaged priorities. Pakistani institutions need to
cultivate a culture of ‘approachability.’ Erdogan’s policy is doomed to fail
for it invites a military response and supports aggressive posture, elsewhere.
Pakistan has a vibrant media where instead of banning social awareness programs
like Udaari PEMRA should prove its professionalism and credential through
filtering propagandist elements, whether sectarian, nationalist or religious.
This will carve a path toward platforms that instill element of ‘positive
learning’ i.e. for example, religious education be provided after broad-based
education of twelve years. Pakistan needs to develop a culture of
interdependence – not, distrust. We have made Kalabagh Dam a controversial issue
like CPEC. According to PWRCR report, Pakistan will have no drinking water by
2025. Denying basics while attempting to reach for stars is fruitless
endeavour. Many potential dams can be carved out which will provide better use.
Developing
relations with SAARC, ASEAN and CARs will enhance the status of Pakistan.
China’s CPEC has provided impetus to Pakistan’s growth as a regional player. To
be considered as global player, Pakistan has to work in its relationship with
these organisations along with Russia. During the period of developing Eurasian
alliance, Pakistan can attempt to consolidate her position as a contributor
through regional forums in the Asian continent. Pakistani society considers
process of documentation as a light matter. It is through documentation that
institutions deliver and true sense of accountability, exists. We have to
self-examine our strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and existential threats.
The
‘approachability’ concept is evident through China-ASEAN contention in the past
that later developed into an opportunity for growth – as Russia emerged as a
global power contender with the aim of supporting the case for ‘moral law is
the highest law’. Elodie Sellier (The Diplomat) depicts the situation:
‘China published its first official Arab Policy
Paper, claiming a “broad consensus on safeguarding state sovereignty and
territorial integrity, defending national dignity, seeking political resolution
to hotspot issues, and promoting peace and stability in the Middle East,” after
the Saudi-Iranian rivalry came to the fore in the course of energy wars. In the
recent decades, China’s increasing willingness to engage with international
institutions is termed as one of the most dramatic changes in the People
Republic of China’s foreign policy. This stance is underscored by China’s
increasing power lending her credibility and reliability to confidently pursue
an active interest-pursuit to influence world events or international
institutions.’
Elodie
Sellier further states:
‘These mounting challenges are dealt with
principles of consensus and non-interference, alongside greater emphasis on
regional institution-building, which are currently needed to accommodate the
ever-evolving economic and security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region. ASEAN
is to realize what it purports to be – “politically cohesive, economically
integrated, socially responsible” and “truly people-oriented, people-centered
rules-based” concert of Southeast Asian nations, it will need more than just
empty statements to overcome the “say-do” chasm and address the pervasive
issues of worsening poverty and inequalities of wealth, resources, power and
opportunities, let alone the questions of human rights and democracy… That
said, economic influence goes hand in hand with political influence, and
economic integration will be of little significance if it is not backed by
sound political reforms. It is somewhat ironic that ASEAN as a regional entity,
whose very raison d’être was born out of its leaders’ burning desire to avoid
the recurrence of war and establish a durable and peaceful regional
equilibrium, has to date remained focused on the integration of its economic
pillar.’
It can be
duly stated that there exists the possibility of a future where South East Asia
will fall under Chinese dominance due to the New Silk route which involves
passage through railroad and sea. This is where the periphery of East-West
corridor of Asia will be located. Once connected to the Russian initiative of
North-South Eurasia corridor – the Asian continent will gain an upper hand in
trade, development and prosperity. Reforms are needed and as ASEAN member
states slowly absorb the externalities generated by the ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC), the ASEAN leaders may want to consider preparing the groundwork
to build more stable, secure societies, deepen ties with geographical neighbors
and, eventually, develop a shared sense of regional community and purpose.
Pakistan
pursued a policy to engage in dialogue on Kashmir in 2015. It was granted the
host status for Commonwealth annual meeting. It was forgone in strong protest
against foreign involvement in Balochistan and Afghanistan. Joint
Pakistani-Indian Ufa declaration meant a diplomatic initiative to pursue
matters of contention through mutual understanding. Modi’s visit to Pakistan after visiting
Russia and Afghanistan (where he inaugurated Afghanistan's new Parliament) was
a positive step towards collaboration between the neighbours. Pointing out a
solution or positive approach to learning- stated by Elodi Sellier:
‘China has been more skillful and used better
diplomacy in Asia, the region where Beijing devotes the most time, energy, and
attention. Through skillful diplomacy, it has helped orchestrate a revolution
in attitudes over two decades.’
It is evident
in the 1980s, where China did not even have relations with much of East Asia
which included countries like including South Korea, Indonesia and Singapore.
However, in the summer of 2007, China was holding joint military exercises with
the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). When asked in 2007 whom
they trusted to wield global power, residents in countries like Thailand and
Indonesia, traditional U.S. allies, chose China over the United States.
According to Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying, the corridor
will "serve as a driver for connectivity between South Asia and East
Asia." Mushahid Hussain, chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute, told
China Daily that the economic corridor:
"will play a crucial role in regional integration
of the 'Greater South Asia', which includes China, Iran, Afghanistan, and
stretches all the way to Myanmar."
The
Eastern Alignment serves us as a military deterrent. By placing a major
Chinese-Pakistani asset within 100 KM's; a strategic line in the sand. In an
event of a conflict, Indians would think 100
times before attacking the lines of communication which serve billions
of dollars worth of trade interests to not only Pakistan but China and other
CPEC partner states. The Magazine, The Diplomat, provides key insight to the
'ASEAN way-forward' which refers to a methodology or approach to solving issues
that respects the cultural norms of Southeast Asia. Masilamani and Peterson
summarize it as:
"...a working process or style that is
informal and personal. Policymakers constantly utilize compromise, consensus,
and consultation in the informal decision-making process... it above all
prioritizes a consensus-based, non-conflictual way of addressing problems.
Quiet diplomacy allows ASEAN leaders to communicate without bringing the
discussions into the public view. Members avoid embarrassment that may lead to
further conflict."
It has
been said that the merits of the ASEAN Way might "...be usefully applied
to global conflict management."
The
scenarios mentioned above can prove beneficial in terms of minimising the
skirmish between Saudis and Iranians, Turks and Syrians, India and Pakistan;
will be a difficult task nevertheless an achievable one when put in the
contours of Regional Cooperation in the context of ASEAN, another platform
where China factor is the considered most influential in terms of national
interests of South East Asian nations and Pacific countries. The Association of
Southeast Asian Nations is a political and economic organization of ten
Southeast Asian countries. SAARC, CAU, GCC, Arab League, SCO, BRICS can learn
from their innovative initiatives in terms of solutions to economic and
political challenges.
According
to The Diplomat, the agreement on the creation of an ASEAN Economic Community
(AEC) signed on November 22 in Kuala Lumpur by Southeast Asian countries
finally entered into force heralding the “awakening” of what could be defined
as a new Asian power bloc allowing for the free movement of goods, services and
skilled labor, a major departure from what has been considered since the
earliest days of its existence as a political project for peaceful regional
integration. Integrating ASEAN economies would create the world’s
seventh-largest single market. For economic integration to succeed, minimum
levels of uniformity in political, economic and cultural standing among
countries are essential. In the case of Asia, a solution to Afghanistan problem
will enhance the possibilities. Given the wide development gaps between
countries, combined with the lack of solid and inclusive institutional
structures and agencies to govern the newly formed markets under the AEC, it is
somewhat ironic that ASEAN as a regional entity, whose very raison d’être was
born out of its leaders’ burning desire to avoid the recurrence of war and
establish a durable and peaceful regional equilibrium, has to date remained
focused on the integration of its economic pillar. Tiny state of Laos assumed
the ASEAN chairmanship in 2016. In 2014, China became Laos’ leading investor
with funds totaling more than $5 billion, while the Sino-Laos agreement on the
building of a $6 billion high-speed railway project as part of the PRC’s One
Belt, One Road project offers a telling glimpse into how Laos has become a
frontier for Chinese investment. With Russia, China and India pursuing an
active stance in the respective regional arena, incorporating the interests of
neighbouring states, which allows space for a non-militaristic agenda.
Disputes
of Philippines and Japan with China were mitigated through activation of
Eurasian channels with Russia taking the lead at Russia-ASEAN summit at Sochi.
The ASEAN countries have recognized it as an opportunity to reiterate as a
policy of ‘consensus and non-interference.’ SCO and BRICS are glimpses into the
priorities of Eurasian powers. This development had an impact on South Asian,
Middle Eastern and Central Asian states. Mutual cooperation increased which
also affirms the South East Asian approach of ‘consensus and non-interference.’
It is evident in Iran, India and Afghanistan Chahbahar port deal. While Gwadar lends Pakistan a breathing
space, there lingers another problem. According to PCRWR, Pakistan may run out
of water by 2025. Pakistani federal government and provincial administrations
should consider the criticality of the situation. Most of the rivers in
Pakistan have their source in Indian territory upon which dams are being built
by the neighbor. Geo-spatial Bill was passed in India parliament, which regards
the geographical element inherently central to the theme of combining
geo-economic policy and geo-strategic interests. This development can be termed
as a step towards strengthening long term national policy. Discussion on such
important issues should be held in the Pakistani parliament. Considering the
significance of Chahbahar port deal at a time when Syrian ceasefire plan is in
place, the impending (developing) situation depicts that Afghanistan and Syria
are (have been) inextricably linked throughout the ages in both , spiritual and
material terms ( as in the role of buffer states ). It was a 20th century
philosopher (Allama Iqbal) who stated in his book Stray Reflections – Future of
Afghanistan:
‘The verdict of history is that buffer states
have never been able to form themselves into great political units. So was the
case with Syria – a buffer state between the Empire of Rome and that of the Persians.
It seems difficult to forecast the future of Afghanistan.’
Holding
Afghanistan: Heart of Asia conference as a democratic government initiative is
futile without providing actual help through the course of intertwining
geo-economic policy and aligning geo-strategic interests. Turkey failed in this
attempt due to militarism. Russia has audacity to succeed despite the
encirclement. This is due to the undeterred support of Putin to a converged
multi-polar world system where the resurgent resolve of ‘highest law is the
moral law’ is the deterrence factor to a global military dictatorship of
Euro-Jewish state of Israel i.e. Pax Judaica.
The
insight of the philosopher Iqbal was established through the events occurring
at his time on the International stage. He said that if Tehran becomes the
Geneva of the East, it is possible that the destiny of the East might change
(from being subjugated to general freedom). Pakistan can become part of the
‘balancing act’ signified through Iran’s turn from (western Asia) militaristic
adventures in Middle East that culminated in Syrian ceasefire plan (at the
hands of Russia) to engaging with the
emerging and newly defined importance of (East Asian) Af-Pak region. This
requires sensible and intelligent policy. Pakistan should improve relations
with her neighbours as a gesture of ‘goodwill’ and to enhance her capability to
effectively and efficiently contribute input and extricate or gain positive
output through utilising a pro-active approach towards the developments taking
place in the region. The opposite outcome can be the similar situation to the
International treatment of North Korea. Hence, there exists a great example for
learning through Iqbal’s reference to the link between Syria and Afghanistan. A new foreign policy that is based upon norm
of reviewing and redefining the approach in the rapidly changing and developing
global situation – can manage to cater the needs for evolutionary democracy.
Pakistani leadership should extend cordial relations with her South Asian
‘neighbours’, Middle Eastern ‘relatives’,
Central Asian ‘acquaintances' and, the South East and Far East Asian
‘friends’. The beginning step would be restoring peace in Afghanistan with the
help of Eurasian nations whose pivot is towards a central geo-economic policy
and geo-strategic interests. Russia ensured Syrian ceasefire plan. A combined
Pakistani, Iranian, Indian, Central Asian and Chinese program to support
Afghanistan’s democratic government can be a defining step towards a ‘Peaceful
Asia’. This is possible through the process of becoming a part of eastern
geo-economic policy to counter-balance western geo-strategic interest. It is
time that Pakistani leadership learns from the leaders around the world and
engages in a proactive manner. An accountable government can follow such path.
As the case of Panama Papers is discussed in Parliament committee and will be
scrutinized in judicial commission – we must attempt to correct our mistakes.
One day, we might have an effective foreign policy based on a sustainable
institutional framework.
The
Nation reported on 23rd December 2013 in the news published – Indo-Pak Nuclar
war to 'end civilisation' with famine: Study:
'According to International Physicians for the
prevention of nuclear war, a limited nuclear exchange would result in a
conflict with nuclear weapons that would wreak havoc in the atmosphere and
devastate crop yields dwindling the food production with the effects multiplied
as global food markets go into turmoil.’
Ira
Hefland, the report’s author, said that the study looked at India and Pakistan
due to the longstanding tensions between the nuclear-armed states, which have
fought three full-fledged wars since independence and partition in 1947.
Helfand
said that:
''the planet would expect a similar apocalyptic
impact from any limited nuclear war where the Modern nuclear weapons are far
more powerful than the US bombs that killed more than 200,000 people in
Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. With a large war between the United States and
Russia, we are talking about the possible - not certain, but possible -
extinction of the human race. In this kind of war, biologically there are going
to be people surviving somewhere on the planet but the chaos that would result
from this will dwarf anything we’ve ever seen.”
The study
said that the black carbon aerosol particles kicked into the atmosphere by a
South Asian nuclear war would reduce US corn and soybean production by around
10 percent over a decade. The particles would also reduce China’s rice production
by an average of 21 percent over four years and by another 10 percent over the
following six years. The updated study also found severe effects on China’s
wheat, which is vital to the country despite its association with rice. China’s
wheat production would plunge by 50 percent the first year after the nuclear
war and would still be 31 percent below baseline a decade later. The study said
it was impossible to estimate the exact impact of nuclear war. In a second
edition, the groups said they widely underestimated the impact in China and
calculated that the world’s most populous country would face severe food
insecurity. A billion people dead in the developing world is obviously a
catastrophe unparalleled in human history. But then if you add to that the
possibility of another 1.3 billion people in China being at risk, we are
entering something that is clearly the end of civilisation.
Pakistan
needs to incorporate the geo-economic policy of Chabahar plan and ASEAN
Economic community (AEC) and deliver it as a periphery to the central tenets of
(umbrella) Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) priorities. It will restore
balance against the Geo-strategic aims of Pro-Israeli NATO's inevitable attempt
to secure the Euro-Jewish State of Israel while Iran has moved its gaze towards
Eastern Asia to collect gains before the conflict in Middle East would
intensify and nosedive the Syrian cease-fire plan. When will the foreign
ministry of Pakistan initiate a policy to indulge the various ministries whose
input can drive our Nation-State to take benefit of the global situation
prevailing in the world system. To take control of the situation; Minister of
Planning, Development & Reforms, Ministers of Health & Education and
Minister of Interior Affairs need to work on collaboration, coordination and
cooperation provided by Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This will involve the role
of ministries like Water and Power, Science and Technology, Ports and Shipping, Petroleum and Natural
resources, Food security and research, Law, Justice & Human rights,
Industries and Production and, Commerce and Textile as well as other
ministries. A pro-active policy will benefit, a lot. Will the Pakistani
Government take up the mantle to change the country's subservient and
subjugated role to a more defining and enhanced role?
Waqas
Mahmood Ali
Waqas Mahmood Ali is a graduate of University
of London External Program; currently a MBA Executive student at Lahore School
of Economics. Living years of adolescence in Brunei Darussalam and spending
youth in Pakistan has inspired Waqas to pursue research interests in matters
related to Asia and international news
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