VIENTIANE,
Laos — Daring to take on China in a
territorial dispute in the South China Sea, the Philippines went to an
international tribunal for justice, and won big. But it turned out to be a
pyrrhic victory.
Beijing
came back with such ferocity and manipulative diplomacy that other Southeast
Asian countries that have similar disputes with it are apparently backing down.
One by
one, their positions became clear at meetings this week of Asia-Pacific and Southeast
Asian nations, a gathering that was supposed to unanimously call out China for
a host of actions in the resource-rich South China Sea — building artificial
islands and military airstrips, sending warships, staging live-firing exercises
and shooing away fishermen from other countries.
And so,
the four-day conclave in Vientiane, the Laotian capital, ended Tuesday with
China's muscles bulging more than ever, and the vaunted unity of the 10-member
Association of Southeast Asian Nations in disarray.
"Neither
China nor ASEAN emerged from the Vientiane meetings with honor," said Ian
Storey, a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, a
Singapore-based think tank. "It's a sad state of affairs when expectations
of ASEAN being able to do anything to lower tensions in the South China Sea are
zero, and instead the focus is on whether it can get its act together."
Philippine
Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. sought to put a positive spin on the
developments.
"Whether
or not you will say that this is a triumph of China or a triumph of the
Philippines, or a defeat of China or a defeat of the Philippines, the fact is
clear," he told reporters in Manila on Wednesday. "This is a victory
for ASEAN for upholding the very principles of international law and ... more
importantly, pursuing our negotiations in the dispute in a peaceful
manner."
"Be
that as it may, the actual resolution of this dispute between China and the
Philippines is a matter between China and the Philippines," he said,
reflecting a position that suits China perfectly.
The first
coup de grace China dealt was at an ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting, where it
successfully prevented a joint communique from mentioning the July 12 ruling by
the Hague-based arbitration panel in favor of the Philippines. While the
communique did express concerns about the tensions in the South China Sea, it
did so without naming China.
A
millstone around the neck of ASEAN — Southeast Asia's main grouping — is that
it can issue statements only when there is consensus among all 10 members.
China leveraged that by ensuring that Cambodia and Laos would not provide that
consensus. Both countries receive massive aid from China, which recently
announced a $600 million package to Cambodia.
"As
an association, ASEAN loses power and relevance when it punts on the most
important regional issues," said John Ciorciari, a Southeast Asia expert
at the University of Michigan. "Yet ASEAN operates by consensus, and when
push comes to shove, national interests tend to trump regional
solidarity."
"Aid
has won China some close friends in Southeast Asia, and Cambodia in particular
has been quite willing to cast vetoes on communique language inimical to
Chinese interests," he said.
China
does not accept the arbitration panel's ruling, and says all disputes should be
settled bilaterally through negotiations. It did not participate in the panel's
hearings, and insists that almost all of the South China Sea, which is ringed
by claimants China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan,
belongs to it historically.
It also
accuses outside parties — the United States, Japan and Australia — of needling
ASEAN countries and raising tensions. After ASEAN's failure to rebuke China,
those three countries issued a joint statement in Vientiane saying they
strongly oppose "any coercive unilateral actions that could alter the
status quo and increase tensions."
China
lashed out at them on Wednesday, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying in a
statement that the three countries were "fanning the flames" of
regional tension.
"Now
it is the time to test whether you are peacekeepers or troublemakers," he
said.
Diplomats
who attended the Laos meetings said it was interesting to see that claimant
countries appeared less enthusiastic than others in wanting to rebuke China.
Even the Philippines was not too forceful in asking for strong language in the
joint ASEAN statement. It repeatedly pointed out that the ruling by the
arbitration panel was the result of its "unilateral" lawsuit,
implying that ASEAN should not get involved.
Malaysia's
foreign minister didn't even show up for the meetings. At a later meeting of
ASEAN and Asia-Pacific nations, Brunei took pains to praise China's leadership,
according to diplomats who attended the meeting.
And on
Tuesday, Vietnam's deputy foreign minister, Le Hoai Trung, told The Associated
Press that his country prefers bilateral dialogue with China, which Beijing
wants.
The
Philippines is in a tight spot because even though it went to the tribunal and
won, that was under the previous government of Benigno Aquino III. President
Rodrigo Duterte, Aquino's successor, has made friendly overtures to Beijing and
is leaning toward bilateral negotiations.
But the
bottom line is that the tribunal's decision, although legally binding, is
non-enforceable. The arbitration panel didn't take a position on who owns the
disputed territories, which include reefs and rocky outcroppings in the vast
sea. It concluded only that many of them are legally rocks, even if they've been
built into islands, and therefore do not include the international rights to
develop the surrounding waters.
Now it is
up to China to decide what concessions it wants to make, and how much pressure
the smaller countries can take.
"At
this point, it (the ruling) is not a magic stick ... it's not a solution to
everything, but rather it needs to be combined with other measures," said
Tran Viet Thai, deputy director of the Institute of Strategic Studies, a
Vietnamese government think tank.
China is
showing no signs of slowing down its efforts to exert control over the South
China Sea.
State-run
companies are joining forces to offer luxury cruises in the waters. Three
companies dealing in shipping, tourism and construction will contribute to
running as many as eight cruise liners by June 2017 to service a region through
which an estimated $5 trillion in global trade passes each year. They're also
building four docks, which will be able to handle 2 million passengers a year.
One of
China's main cellphone carriers, China Telecommunications Corp., has extended
4G service to several disputed South China Sea islands. Its competitor China
Mobile Communications Corp. already offers similar services.
Along
with creating new islands by piling sand on top of coral reefs, China has built
airstrips, harbors and lighthouses that is says will benefit fishermen and ship
owners who transit the strategic waterway.
Clearly,
China is not giving up the sea — tribunal or no tribunal — yet the ruling will
continue to hang over it like a dagger.
"It's
impossible for (the ruling) to be irrelevant," U.S. Secretary of State
John Kerry told reporters in Manila, where he made a stop after the Laos
meetings.
But
"we are not trying to create a confrontation. We are trying to create a
solution," he said.
Vijay Joshi is the AP's Southeast Asia news
director. He has covered the region for 18 years.
Associated
Press writer Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines, contributed to this report.
No comments:
Post a Comment