South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se
(second from the left) and his North Korean counterpart Ri Yong-ho pass each
other at a welcome reception at the ASEAN Regional Forum at a hotel in the
Laotian capital of Vientiane, July 25. The two did not greet each other as they
passed. (Yonhap News)
At the series of meetings in Laos, South China
Sea, N. Korean nukes and THAAD were pressing issues
The ASEAN
Regional Forum that took place in Vientiane, capital of Laos, from July 24 to
July 26 and the meetings of foreign ministers from ASEAN (the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations) made clear the diplomatic reality confronting the key
players in Northeast Asia - including North Korea, South Korea, the US and
China - and showed which countries are close to each other and which are not.
Add in Japan and Russia, and you have a complete picture of all the countries
involved in the Six-Party Talks.
Since the
forum took place amid the South China Sea dispute, the North Korean nuclear
issue and the controversial decision to deploy the THAAD missile defense system
with US Forces Korea, it has been described as a litmus test for affairs in
Northeast Asia.
This
article is a recap of the diplomatic battle fought at Vientiane by the various
Northeast Asia countries.
South Korea: new diplomatic challenges on the
horizon
The forum
provided tentative confirmation that the controversy about the THAAD deployment
could be a catastrophe for South Korean foreign policy. The fact that Chinese
Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave South Korea the cold shoulder and North Korea a
warm welcome suggests that choppy seas are ahead for South Korean diplomats.
The
domestic and international media are more interested in the THAAD controversy
than in dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue, which can be seen as a
leading indicator of this. Even though a consensus has already formed in the
international community about sanctions against North Korea following
Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test in January, South Korean Foreign Minister Yun
Byung-se is anxious that the reference to the North Korean nuclear program in
the forum’s statement will be weaker than in previous years.
The most
troubling factor for the challenges that are in store for South Korean
diplomats is the fact that, if the Chinese government remains opposed to the
THAAD deployment and takes countermeasures, there is little South Korea can do
about it.
North Korea: exploiting international friction
to break out of its own isolation
North
Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho was at ease during the forum. This attitude
was not what you might expect from the top diplomat of North Korea, which was
forced into even greater international isolation by UN Security Council No.
2270.
Ri‘s contentment
reflects the fact that regional affairs are playing out just as North Korea had
hoped they would. The battle lines are gradually becoming clearer between the
US and Japan on the one hand and China on the other in the South China Sea
dispute and between South Korea, the US and Japan on the one hand and North
Korea, China and Russia on the other in regard to the THAAD controversy.
As those
battle lines are drawn, it is inevitable that cracks will form in international
cooperation on sanctions against North Korea, and it is possible that North
Korean diplomats will have more room to work.
During
the ASEAN Regional Forum last year, North Korea and China did not hold a
foreign ministers meeting, and their relations became even more strained after
North Korea’s fourth nuclear test. But in this year’s forum there were signs
that their relations have started to thaw.
As if in
response to China’s friendly welcome, Ri expressed definite support for China
in the South China Sea dispute. “The US is further complicating regional
affairs by meddling in the maritime dispute in the Asia-Pacific region,” he
said.
China: squirming like a dragon in a trap
The
person who received the most attention during the forum was Wang. But Wang did
not exhibit the ease of the attacker but the desperation of the defender. The
dragon of China had been caught in a trap set by the US, and it writhed in an
attempt to escape. China was forced to defend itself from two American attacks
at once: the South China Sea dispute through the US proxy of the Philippines,
and the THAAD deployment through the US proxy of South Korea. Through THAAD,
the US hopes to forward deploy a missile defense network in Northeast Asia.
Chinese
diplomats find themselves in a complicated and challenging predicament. Even as
Wang put on a “diplomatic protest” by treating South Korea coolly and North
Korea warmly, he reiterated China’s three principles for denuclearization of
the Korean Peninsula in response to North Korea’s threats to strengthen its
nuclear deterrent.
Wang had
to put pressure on South Korea to retract its decision to deploy THAAD while
also preventing the unwelcome possibility of South Korea becoming a junior
partner in the US-Japan alliance.
While
Wang’s bilateral meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida resulted
in a sharp quarrel over the South China Sea that was reminiscent of a
neighborhood shouting match, Wang accepted Japan’s proposal to hold a
trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of South Korea, China and Japan in
August to discuss the question of holding a trilateral summit.
Even more
importantly, China needs the cooperation of South Korea, the US and Japan in
order to successfully host the G-20 Hangzhou Summit this September, which is
supposed to give Chinese President Xi Jinping a chance to show off his
diplomatic leadership. This is why Wang‘s behavior during the forum looked a
little schizophrenic.
The US: a dangerous aggressor
If Wang
was the desperate defender, US Secretary of State John Kerry was the relaxed
attacker. On all three of the pressing issues - the South China Sea, the North
Korean nuclear issue and THAAD - the US is on the offense and China is on
defense.
During
Kerry’s bilateral meeting with Yun, the two leaders agreed to hold a “two plus
two” minister meeting (between the top defense and foreign policy officials)
this year in order to discuss ways the two countries can cooperate to globalize
the US-ROK alliance.
On July
27, Kerry met with Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines, to work out a
plan for dealing with the South China Sea dispute following the July 12 ruling
by the Permanent Court of Arbitration. The Philippines was the country that
brought a lawsuit against China on the issue of the South China Sea, and China
was the target of these actions.
During
the official welcome dinner at the meeting of foreign ministers at the ASEAN
Regional Forum on July 25, Kerry warmly greeted the foreign ministers of
Pakistan and Papua New Guinea, who were sitting on both sides of Ri Yong-ho,
but he did not even glance at Ri. This diplomatic gesture was calculated to
show that the US does not care about North Korea.
By Lee
Je-hun, staff reporter in Vientiane
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