PH needs $11B for PPP projects to narrow gap
The Asean-6 will require more than $2
trillion in infrastructure spending by 2030 to serve the needs of a growing
urban population and close the gaps in available facilities in the region, with
$11 billion of the amount needed by the Philippines, global bank HSBC said.
Asean-6 is the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations’ six biggest economies, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
In a report, HSBC said the infrastructure gap
could narrow if the region, particularly the Philippines, would tap efficiently
its public-private partnership (PPP) program.
“We estimate that Asean-6 requires over $2.1
trillion in infrastructure spending by 2030—in part due to the fact that the
urban population will rise by over 90 million—but the current spending trend
(if sustained) will cover only $910 billion,” said HSBC economist Joseph
Incalcaterra.
“This roughly translates to a weighted
average of 3.8 percent of GDP [gross domestic product] on infrastructure
spending (on a country basis, this is close to 5 percent for Indonesia, the
Philippines and Vietnam, and lower levels for Singapore, Malaysia and
Thailand),” he explained.
The economist said that crucially, this
projected requirement looks at overall spending—including public and pledged
private sources—to meet the basic infrastructure requirements, based on an HSBC
framework.
In order to effectively fill the
infrastructure gap, more non-government financing is necessary, both from
private sources and institutions such as the Asian Developmen t Bank and the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Incalcaterra said.
“The stakes couldn’t be higher: the failure
to sustain infrastructure spending will limit long-term potential growth and
dampen Asean’s demographic dividend,” he added.
It is true, he said, that PPP programs are in
place across the region, but the contribution so far has been tiny and
institutional reforms are needed to attract more.
$11B infra gap in PH
In the Philippines alone, the pipeline of
projects, most of which have not been initiated, “totals approximately $30
billion,” he said.
Assuming an average of 10 years for the
projects, the contribution of PPPs can account for up to $3 billion a year, out
of a total yearly infrastructure requirement of $25 billion, the HSBC economist
noted.
“This may not seem like much, but it is not
insignificant. Moreover, should the program be ramped up and the projects
expedited—which is what President [Rodrigo] Duterte has called for —then PPPs
can, indeed, be a feasible source for plugging the infrastructure gap of $11
billion per year,” he said.
Incalcaterra added that given years of fiscal
prudence under the previous Administration, the current government has
sufficient fiscal space to ramp up infrastructure spending.
However, he noted that the funding process is
not as smooth for the private sector.
“Despite excess liquidity in the Philippine
financial market, most of it is not productively deployed and sits in the
central bank deposit facility,” he said.
Incalcaterra stressed that construction
companies rely on bank loans for funding PPP projects, but they face single
borrower limits by the central bank, which is mostly maxed out given the
conglomerate nature of the Philippine economy.
“The BSP [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas]
provided a three-year extension for PPP projects through end-2016, but this may
not be extended. The clear solution is for more corporate bond issuance to match
the long-term duration of projects,” he suggested.
“Unfortunately, the market infrastructure is
not fully developed but the BSP has taken a pro-active stance in fixing these
issues,” he added.
As such, Incalcaterra said governments across
the region need to be much more aggressive with increasing PPP programs and
instituting the proper reforms to deepen capital markets.
“Only then will we be able to truly fill the
gaping Asean infrastructure pothole,” he concluded.
Mayvelin U. Caraballo
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