In 2013,
I had dinner with six Thai high school teachers who had been my students back
when I taught English at a university in Bangkok in the late 1970s. A few of
them I had not seen in more than 30 years. Most of our conversation focused on
the personal, talking about family and friends, and how our lives had evolved
after first meeting 35 years ago. When we were younger, politics was rarely
discussed, as the violence of the October 1976 coup that resulted in a deadly
clash with student protesters was an immense shock on the psyche. I was reminded
more than once by university administrators not to speak of politics in or
outside the classroom.
But over
this dinner, the conversation did turn to politics, but not so much about
Thailand’s political challenges, but about ASEAN of all things. At the dinner,
I learned that my former students were receiving training on how to talk about
ASEAN to their students in preparation for Thailand and other member countries
to form “a community” that would be integrated based on three pillars –
political, economic, and socio-cultural. With the exception of one former
student, they were not enthusiastic.
This was
viewed as another task imposed by senior bureaucrats in addition to their other
responsibilities. When I asked them if they identified themselves at all as
“citizens of ASEAN,” they said they felt a cultural affinity for people from
Laos, Cambodia, and to a lesser extent, Myanmar, but in the end they were
“Thai,” and could appreciate the economic benefits of enhanced trade with the
region. One former student, perhaps accurately, but nonetheless sarcastically,
said, “John, you probably understand ASEAN better than we do.”
While my
conversation with former students does not serve as a representative sample of
what the Thai population might think about ASEAN, I think it does present
insight on how people in Thailand and elsewhere in Southeast Asia might have
reservations about ASEAN, especially in light of the recent decision by Great
Britain to leave the European Union, known the world over as “Brexit.”
The EU
and ASEAN are two very different organizations. The EU is a supranational
organization with a bureaucracy based in Brussels that is committed to a
“union” of nations that are all democratic and have developed economies. ASEAN
is an inter-governmental regional organization where national sovereignty is
virtually sacrosanct and the levels of political and economic development are
diverse.
Those in
the UK supporting the “leave” platform capitalized on economic inequality and anti-immigration
sentiments to suggest Britain would be better off on its own. Such talk can
resonate strongly in Southeast Asia where wealth is highly concentrated.
According to Shishir Sinha of the Frontier Strategy Group, if ASEAN’s five
major emerging markets – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and
Vietnam – were merged into one big country, and the provinces were compared to
each other, 75 percent of the GDP would be located in less than 25 percent of
this imaginary nation’s provinces.
The ASEAN
Economic Community (AEC), which was established last year, will create one of
the largest single market economies in the world, facilitating the free
movement of trade, services, and professionals. With 289 million people in
ASEAN under the age of 35, a young work force brings with it a higher agility
to move jobs. ASEAN is facing an increasing demand for talent, but is
experiencing a lack of supply. Seventy-five percent of ASEAN college graduates
are likely not considered employable by multi-national companies. Potential
employers cite poor English language skills and the low quality of educational
standards, thus creating a competition for the same resources.
There is
tension in ASEAN countries about foreign workers in unskilled jobs. For
example, there was an advertisement for a vacuum cleaner last year in Malaysia
that said “Fire Your Indonesian Maid Now!” With reports of abuse and torture,
the treatment of Indonesian migrants by Malaysians has been a constant source
of tension between the two countries.
If ASEAN
is to succeed at regional economic integration, there is no room for
protectionist sentiment. However, a strong rupiah, anti-foreign sentiment,
increased Chinese competition, and lobbying by local business interests has
pushed Indonesia, the region’s largest economy, toward protectionism. Indonesia
envisions itself as wanting a greater role in global affairs. But for this to
happen, Indonesia will need to develop greater economic clout that would be
commensurate with the political clout it aspires to. Some in Indonesia believe
ASEAN weighs down Indonesia’s potential. But this begs the question: Will
Indonesia need to show regional leadership before it can command greater
attention on the world stage?
A 2013
European Commission survey found that half of EU citizens said they did not
know how the EU worked. Perhaps not surprisingly, only 25 percent of Southeast
Asians know what ASEAN is. Although English is not a native language in any
Southeast Asian nation, it is the official language of ASEAN, which perhaps
instills a sense in Southeast Asians that ASEAN is elitist and therefore not
representational of the average person in the region.
Although
ASEAN is striving to be “one community,” it does not have one voice. It is
indeed divided on issues pertaining to territorial disputes in the South China
Sea and damming on the Mekong Rover, among others. However, ASEAN has achieved
peace and stability and strong economic growth. But ASEAN leaders need to
demonstrate to citizens that increased regional economic integration can better
distribute wealth and help its members address important transnational issues
such as migration, human rights, human trafficking, climate change and maritime
security. Opting out is not an option. Those in Britain who voted to leave the
EU will soon learn this. Hopefully ASEAN can learn from the experience of the
EU sooner than later.
John J. Brandon is senior director for The Asia
Foundation’s International Relations programs in Washington, D.C. The views and
opinions expressed here are those of the author and not those of The Asia
Foundation or its funders.
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