China’s
outbound tourism boom is expected to remain the largest force in the global
travel market over the next decade, with Chinese spending reaching US$255.4
billion by 2025.
This was
the prediction of a recent report by economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics
and credit card company Visa called “Mapping the Future of Global Travel and
Tourism,” which says that this number will be the result of an 86 percent
increase in Chinese travel spending in the next 10 years.
The 2025 prediction
will be up from $137 billion spent in 2015, keeping China far at the top of the
list as the number one source of cross-border travel spending in the world.
The
staggering amount is expected to be almost double that of the United States’
second-place $134.1 billion spent by tourists abroad and larger than that of
Germany, the UK, and Russia combined.
Chinese tourists pose
for a photo in Cambodia. (Jing Daily)
The
report looks at travel spending by households with incomes over US$20,000 and
utilizes Visa payment data as well as Oxford Economics projections, excluding
spending on plane tickets. Estimates by previous organizations that include
airline ticket purchases have been even higher—a report by the London-based
nonprofit World Travel and Tourism Council released in March this year states
that Chinese tourists spent a total of $215 billion overseas travel in 2015,
while a report by China Luxury Advisors and the Fung Business Intelligence
Centre says that overseas travel spending by Chinese tourists actually reached
$229 billion last year and will hit $422 billion by 2020.
China is
set to make a major contribution to what the report calls the “rising global
traveling class” in the developing world over the next decade. These rising
middle-class households from emerging markets are expected to take up 45
percent of $1.5 trillion that will be spent on cross-border tourism by 2025.
The total number of Chinese travelers heading abroad is set to hit 242 million
by 2024, according to previous projections by HSBC.
The
report notes that increasing connectivity from new flights and airports will be
a major factor in the growth of global tourism spending, and travelers will be
savvier than ever thanks to the the rise of online travel platforms and access
to customer reviews.
Medical
tourism will also be a key trend for the future of the international travel
industry, especially in the case of travelers over 65. Thanks to a mistrust of
doctors in China as well as rising Chinese demand for plastic surgery and
“maternity tourism,” Chinese outbound medical tourism has been growing as
travelers head to places such as South Korea, Japan, Europe, or the United
States.
The
report notes that there are risks to the future of Chinese travel, however, as
China’s economy remains on shaky ground. It points out that China’s stock
market has lost over a third of its value, stating that “the fall-out from a
loss in confidence about the economy can make travelers more reticent about
taking a vacation and less likely to go.” In addition, yuan devaluation makes
it more expensive for Chinese tourists to travel abroad and can dampen
spending.
Nonetheless,
the report points out that despite economic turmoil, Chinese tourism appears to
be better able to weather these challenges better than counterparts Brazil and
Russia, which have been seeing decreased travel spending. The report’s
prediction of continued future growth is based on the fact that even as China’s
economy slowed in 2015, Chinese international travel spending grew by an
estimated 13 percent.
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