The
finding of an international arbitral tribunal, which ruled that China's claims
in the South China Sea are illegal, is a massive blow to the country's national
confidence and pride, said Asean Studies Centre research fellow Termsak
Chalermpalanupap.
But there
is no need for other countries to rub salt into the wound, said Dr Termsak, who
was with the Asean Secretariat in Jakarta from 1993 to 2012, and last served as
its director of political and security cooperation.
He found
the tribunal's decision a "surprise" and noted that it ruled against
China on practically every substantive issue under consideration. "But the
Chinese government has itself to blame for boycotting... the arbitration,"
he said.
Senior
fellow William Choong of the International Institute for Strategic Studies
believes the key to reducing tensions is to "give China a ladder to climb
down from".
"If
they get humiliated publicly, which is happening now, and you rub salt in the
wound by conducting military drills, you'll get a fierce reaction," said
Dr Choong, who was among several regional experts interviewed yesterday.
Professor
of international law and former diplomat Walter Woon said China has to show it
is a responsible player if it wants to be respected.
"It
risks being characterised as an international bully set on getting its own way
and unwilling to abide by the rule of law," said Professor Woon, who is
dean of the Singapore Institute of Legal Education.
China's
strident nationalism is creating fear and suspicion among its neighbours, he
said, adding: "There will be a steep price to be paid for all this in
terms of loss of soft power."
Dr Choong
reckons China is unlikely to back down.
"Yes,
China has lost out in terms of its international reputation. But in terms of
assets on the ground, China still rules the roost," he said, citing the
runways that China has on the Spratly Islands, on which heavy transport can
land.
Mr Tim
Johnston, the International Crisis Group's Asia programme director, said it was
hard to tell if China would react aggressively.
"We've
had mixed signals from China," he said, comparing its sinking of
Vietnamese fishing vessels to its military drills in the South China Sea last
week which, he said, could have been "much more aggressive".
To help
calm the waters, the experts urged Asean to step up and play the role of
peacemaker.
Asean
could make room for the Philippines and China to start a dialogue to find new
ways of managing their differences in the South China Sea, said Dr Termsak.
Pointing
to Asean's population of 633 million and gross domestic product of US$2.5
trillion (S$3.4 trillion), Mr Johnston said: "It's a mini superpower in
its own right. It'd be a powerful player if it could get its act
together."
But one
thing could stand in the way of Asean playing a constructive role: nationalism.
"As
the regional economy slows down, nationalism is going to rise and that's going
to make it tougher for governments in the region to be flexible... and for any
negotiations going forward," said Mr Johnston.
Prof Woon
thinks Asean would be sucked into the maelstrom should China decide to pressure
members to take sides. In that situation, he said, "Singapore as a small
country committed to the rule of law will take a principled stand, which would
be to support the result of international arbitration".
But this
would complicate Singapore's relations with China, he acknowledged.
Arguing
for cooler heads to prevail, Mr Johnston said: "Asean has historically
been less than the sum of its parts, but this is its test."
He added:
"If handled well, this could be the start of something."
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